Subject: Tsunami plus land impact risk
From: Alan W Harris
Submitted: Fri, 28 Feb 2003 12:55:50 -0800
Message number: 88
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Attached to this message is a PostScript plot of my latest estimate of
small NEA impact hazard, in stacked histogram form. The blue bars are the
land-only impact risk, in fatalities per year in each size range. The red
bars are the estimated risk from impact tsunamis, "stacked" on top of the
land risk so the levels of the top of the bars are the combined land plus
water impact risk for each size range. Two important caveats apply: (1)
The tsunami risk is dominated by small events, with coastal runup heights
of only a few meters and penetration of only a km or less from the
shore. Most of the population exposed to such an event would likely be
able to flee, so "fatalities" is probably an incorrect characterization of
the risk. It is more likely a measure of substantial property loss by that
number of people, or we could say "lives at risk". (2) We believe the
tsunami risk as plotted is more of an upper limit than a real expectation,
for several reasons. We (mostly Chesley) have used the models of Ward and
Asphaug for estimating runup and penetration. We reduced their estimated
size-frequency of impacts to more closely match our current estimates of
impact frequency, but in the peak size range of risk of ~200-300m diameter,
that estimate is still a factor of 2 above the NEA population data in that
size range, since we have chosen to use a straight-line population that
falls above the data in that range. We have not allowed for harbor
protection, that is, that less than half of the population close enough to
the shore and sea level reside in areas exposed to open sea and are thus
not at risk of short wavelength tsunamis. And finally, there is the
question of wave breaking on continental shelves raised by Melosh based on
the Van Dorn report, suggesting that the tsunami hazard from such small
impactors may be negligible, thus reducing the total hazard to not much
greater than the land-only hazard.
To save you adding up all the size bins (and in case you can't view the
attachment), the summary result is: (1) The land impact risk peaks near
the smallest size that makes it through the atmosphere, around 80 m
diameter, and the risk integrated over all sizes up to 2 km diameter is
around 65 fatalities/year. (2) The impact tsunami risk peaks for impactors
in the 200-300 m size range, and integrated over the full range to 2 km
diameter comes to about 280 per year "lives at risk" or "people-equivalent
property damage."
I will be including this plot in my writeup for the NEO SDT report, and
showing it around at the upcoming meetings of the LSST and NEO SDT groups,
as well as the tsunami workshop in Houston. If you can't detach and view
the plot, let me know and I will try alternate means of getting a viewable
version to you.
Best regards,
Alan
*******************************************************************
Alan W. Harris
Senior Research Scientist
Space Science Institute
4603 Orange Knoll Ave. Phone: 818-790-8291
La Canada, CA 91011-3364 email: harrisaw@colorado.edu
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