Subject: Re: Sound bites on asteroid searches

From: David Wittman

Submitted: Wed, 26 Feb 2003 14:02:25 -0500

Message number: 83 (previous: 82, next: 84 up: Index)

Most of these paint a vivid picture and at the same time make sense
scientifically.  But I have to ask about

"There is no last-minute warning system: Either we discover an 
asteroid and predict its impact decades or centuries in advance, or 
else it strikes without warning -- the first you will know is when 
the sky lights up and the ground starts to shake."

I would understand if you said we couldn't divert it at the last
minute.  But we can't detect it either? (Keep in mind I don't know much
about asteroids and may be representative of the people you are trying
to educate.)

More importantly, what is the implication for the LSST of statements
like

"You have more to fear from the residual 10% of big ones that 
Spaceguard will not have found by 2008 than from the sum of all the 
smaller asteroids."

How long will it take for LSST to catch these last 10%?  How long would
Spaceguard take?  After that, how often do new threats appear?

Cheers,

David Wittman



David Morrison wrote:
> 
> Colleagues:
> 
> This is a follow-up to my note yesterday about the non-statistical
> nature of an asteroid search carried out for the purposes of
> planetary defense. You may be interested in the following "sound
> bite" statements that I have found can help to make these and related
> points. (Reactions are welcome, especially if you don't agree with
> any of these statements.)
> 
> David Morrison
> 
> ==================================
> 
> In the real world, impacts are deterministic: There either is or is
> not an asteroid that will collide with Earth during this century.
....

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